The global fertilizer market continues to adjust after the supply disruptions and logistics shocks that defined the first half of 2026. Buyers across Latin America, Asia, and other import-dependent regions are now moving from crisis response toward long-term supply planning.
The following five developments could shape procurement strategies for the rest of 2026 and beyond.
1. Brazil’s UFN III Approval: A Long-Term Shift in Latin American Urea Supply
Brazil has officially moved forward with board approval to resume construction of the UFN III urea and ammonia plant. The project is expected to require around $1 billion to complete and targets commercial operations in 2029.
Once operational, the plant is expected to produce approximately:
3,600 tonnes per day of urea
2,200 tonnes per day of ammonia
Millions of tonnes of annual domestic fertilizer output
This project matters because Brazil has historically depended heavily on imported fertilizer. During the Hormuz-related fertilizer disruptions in H1 2026, that dependency became costly and risky.
If completed on schedule, UFN III could become a major domestic source of urea and reduce Brazil’s exposure to international shipping disruptions and Gulf supply concentration.
For Latin American fertilizer buyers, this represents more than additional supply—it signals a future with stronger regional resilience and potentially more stable procurement costs.